The 2020 Golden Globe Awards broadcast airs Sunday, January 5, and here are all our predictions for the television categories of this year’s ceremony. Ricky Gervais will return to host The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s (HFPA) annual Golden Globes telecast, highlighting excellence in both television and film categories.

This year’s slate of nominees includes the most talked-about series and TV movies of the year. Fleabag in its second season and the limited series Chernobyl drove much of the conversation during the summer while debuts like The Politician and The Morning Show netted nominations. Returning programs like Netflix’s The Crown and HBO’s Big Little Lies added celebrated talent to their casts, and Succession and Barry continued their excellence. Game of Thrones tallied only one nomination in its final season – for Kit Harington in Best Actor in a Television Series – notably absent in the Best Television Series – Drama category.

The HFPA has a history of awarding new shows, but the returning nominees have had strong years. Which will come out on top during this year’s broadcast? Here are our predictions for the 2020 Golden Globe Television Winners.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Nominees

  • Big Little Lies The Crown Killing Eve The Morning Show Succession

What Will Win: Succession

What Should Win: Succession

Should Have Been a Contender: Game of Thrones

Succession, the HBO drama about the infighting in a family-owned media empire, is the favorite in this category. It benefits from an electrifying cast, an online buzz, and overall artistic excellence that highlights dialogue and nuanced characterization. However, because the HFPA often awards newer shows, putting the spotlight on dramas that are below the radar, a win for AppleTV+’s The Morning Show isn’t out of the question.

Game of Thrones, though plagued by online backlash for its creative choices, continued to be a production feat – the largest scale on television this year – and its exclusion is a bit surprising based on its technical merits. The Crown maintained its excellence and benefited from the addition of Olivia Colman. But for the right combination of buzz and art, Succession will likely grab the Globe.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

  • Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show Olivia Colman – The Crown Jodie Comer – Killing Eve Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Who Will Win: Jennifer Aniston

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman

Should Have Been a Contender: Zendaya, Euphoria

Jennifer Aniston’s return to television led an all-star cast in the staple series of AppleTV+’s launch, The Morning Show, and though she faces strong competition from Olivia Colman, who took over the role of Queen Elizabeth II from Globe-winner Claire Foy, Aniston combines what the HFPA loves the most: she’s in a new series, a win for which will garner attention, and she’s an old favorite.

Euphoria was a revelation during the summer, led by an exceptional lead performance, but it’s dark and probably failed to connect with a voting base that skews older. Jodie Comer picks up her first nomination for Killing Eve, and Nicole Kidman has already won in this category for Big Little Lies. All this suggests a two-actress race with the edge going to Aniston.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

  • Brian Cox - Succession Kit Harington – Game of Thrones Rami Malek – Robot Tobias Menzies – The Crown Billy Porter – Pose

Who Will Win: Billy Porter

Who Should Win: Billy Porter

Should Have Been a Contender: Penn Badgley, You

The star of FX’s Pose, a dramatic series about a group of LGBT and gender-nonconforming dancers and models in the late eighties and early nineties, Billy Porter won the Emmy in 2019 for his work, and if he gets the Globe this weekend, it will be an upset over Brian Cox. But the HFPA is known for its surprises. Cox enters the race with the more popularly known show and more Globe recognition (three nominations for Succession against the one nomination for Pose), but Porter would be making history as the first openly gay African American man to win a Golden Globe.

Penn Badgley’s exclusion in his role as the psychopathic lead in You falls in with Zendaya as a disappointing but predictable snub. Kit Harington might get recognition for his body of work on Game of Thrones, but the “She is my queen!” repetition that marked this final season didn’t give him much to work with. So this category is set up for an historic victory and one of the best acceptance speeches of the night if Porter closes out the win.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Barry Fleabag The Kominsky Method The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel The Politician

What Will Win: Fleabag

What Should Win: Fleabag

Should Have Been a Contender: The Good Place

Barry, the hitman/actor comedy starring Bill Hader, The Kominsky Method, the Michael Douglas-starring comedy about an ageing acting coach, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, a series about a stand-up comic, and The Politician, a satire of politics set in a high school, all will struggle to compete with the best and most talked-about show of the season, Fleabag, which is likely to sweep its categories. This is the surest bet of the bunch: Fleabag will take the win.

In an unconfirmed first, The Good Place used the word “deontological” in a network comedy and was still able to make a season of fresh, compelling television, but even philosophy nerds would vote for Fleabag.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Christina Applegate – Dead to Me Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Kirsten Dunst – On Becoming a God in Central Florida Natasha Lyonne – Russian Doll Phoebe Waller-Bridge – Fleabag

Who Will Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Who Should Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Should Have Been a Contender: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Everything that is true about the Best Comedy Series category is doubly true about this one. Phoebe Waller-Bridge was the face of Fleabag, its creator and star, and she enters the race as the clear favorite, despite compelling work by Rachel Brosnahan who continues to make The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel fresh and Kirsten Dunst who transformed herself for On Becoming a God in Central Florida.

Veep closed out its impressive run with a critically acclaimed final season, and though it would’ve been nice to honor the show’s lead actress, its inclusion wouldn’t stop Fleabag’s momentum.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Michael Douglas – The Kominsky Method Bill Hader – Barry Ben Platt – The Politician Paul Rudd – Living with Yourself Ramy Yousseff – Ramy

Who Will Win: Bill Hader

Who Should Win: Bill Hader

Should Have Been a Contender: Ricky Gervais, After Life

The most unpredictable category on the television side, this race features five actors who could conceivably take the award. The smart money is on Bill Hader who continues to break ground in Barry, but a strong argument could be made for last year’s winner, Michael Douglas. If the award was for “most memed,” then Paul Rudd walks away with an easy victory with his dual role in Living with Yourself, and the Golden Globes often highlight new performances and shows, which makes viable wins for Ben Platt and Ramy Yousseff, who deals with complex themes like conflicting identity in America in Ramy.

The show’s host, Ricky Gervais, could have doubled as a contender for his work as a widower in an existential crisis in After Life, but Hader might follow his Emmy win with a Golden Globe victory.

BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

  • Catch-22 Chernobyl Fosse/Verdon The Loudest Voice Unbelievable

What Will Win: Chernobyl

What Should Win: Unbelievable

Should Have Been a Contender: When They See Us

Unbelievable, the story of a teenager who files a false rape accusation, goes up against the most talked-about series of the summer, Chernobyl, the story of the infamous nuclear meltdown. Both carry serious dramatic weight, and both highlight astounding performances. It’s Chernobyl’s scale and production design that gives it the edge.

 The exclusion of Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us, a story about the Central Park Five, is yet another example of an awards body failing to recognize non-white-centric work, and it could have been a serious contender against this category’s two powerhouses. Of the nominees, Chernobyl will likely eke out a win against strong competition.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

  • Kaitlyn Dever - Unbelievable Joey King – The Act Helen Mirren – Catherine the Great Merritt Wever – Unbelievable Michelle Williams – Fosse/Verdon

Who Will Win: Michelle Williams

Who Should Win: Kaitlyn Dever

Should Have Been a Contender: Niecy Nash, When They See Us

Notably excluded from the Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy on the film side for her work in Booksmart, Kaitlyn Dever gives a brilliant performance in Unbelievable. However, she might split the vote with her castmate Merritt Wever, which would benefit Michelle Williams and Fosse/Verdon, a story about the relationship between the legendary Bob Fosse and dancer/collaborator Gwen Verdon.

Niecy Nash’s dramatic turn in When They See Us continues the snub for this Netflix production. Though the HFPA won’t recognize that limited series, look for them to give at least one award to FX’s critically acclaimed show biz drama, Fosse/Verdon and one of its marquee stars.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

  • Christopher Abbott – Catch-22 Sacha Baron Cohen – The Spy Russell Crowe – The Loudest Voice Jared Harris – Chernobyl Sam Rockwell – Fosse/Verdon

Who Will Win: Jared Harris

Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Have Been a Contender: Aaron Paul, El Camino

The quiet desperation against the slow machine of bureaucracy embodied by Jared Harris in Chernobyl made the series relatable, must-watch television, and he’s likely to take home a win in his first career Golden Globe nomination. However, Sam Rockwell’s physical transformation to become Bob Fosse shouldn’t go unnoticed, as he and Williams carry that series, and Russell Crowe similarly transforms in his portrayal of Roger Ailes in The Loudest Voice.

Aaron Paul’s nuanced return to the role of Jesse Pinkman goes unrecognized – along with the El Camino in every other category – as the HFPA shuts out the Breaking Bad spinoff. Still, Chernobyl was one of the television highlights of the season, and look for Harris to ride that wave of goodwill to a win.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

  • Patricia Arquette – The Act Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown Toni Collette – Unbelievable Meryl Streep – Big Little Lies Emily Watson – Chernobyl

Who Will Win: Emily Watson

Who Should Win: Emily Watson

Should Have Been a Contender: Olivia Colman, Fleabag

It’s a race of some of Hollywood’s finest actresses. Helena Bonham Carter’s sassy take on Princess Margaret is likely to garner many admirers, and Meryl Streep’s addition to the star-studded cast of Big Little Lies is formidable competition, but Chernobyl doesn’t work without the series’ moral center, which is personified by Emily Watson. She expertly plays internal turmoil: her character knows the evils of the Soviet system, recognizes the severity of the meltdown, and resolves to push the series’ central characters to do the right thing – all while being a female nuclear physicist in a patriarchal society.

It’s odd that Fleabag’s goodwill wouldn’t propel Colman to at least a nomination for her work as the main character’s step-mother, but perhaps that speaks to the degree to which Phoebe Waller-Bridge has become the face of the show. It is goodwill – for Chernobyl – that will possibly give the edge to Watson over her impressive competition.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

  • Alan Arkin – The Kominsky Method Kieran Culkin – Succession Andrew Scott – Fleabag Stellan Skarsgard – Chernobyl Henry Winkler – Barry

Who Will Win: Andrew Scott

Who Should Win: Andrew Scott

Should Have Been a Contender: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Had the supporting actor category been separated into drama and comedy, Andrew Scott and Stellan Skarsgard would both be walking home with trophies, but because comedy and drama are combined, we have a battle between “Hot Priest” and a Soviet bureaucrat. It’s a competition between the two most popular series on television this year, and the edge goes to the one with the most cultural cache. Also, Scott has a higher degree of difficulty: he has to play the comic aspects of the character as well as the dramatic push/pull of his attraction to Fleabag versus his loyalty to the cloth, while Skarsgard has a similar internal conflict without the comedy genre expectations.

Peter Dinklage was one of Game of Thrones’ highlights this year: his last speech to his brother was just one of his shining moments in the show’s final season, and though his character may have been let down by the show’s writing, Dinklage still brought his best. In a battle of strong acting from the whole slate of nominees, the one with most cultural relevance is Fleabag’s “Hot Priest.”

The Golden Globe Awards will air Sunday, January 5 at 8:00 ET on NBC.

More: 2019 Primetime Emmy Award Winners List